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Message: [QUOTE="Beachy, post: 2338784, member: 1859"] Doing this assuming the track will be rated heavy ... [b]1. SHOCKING ($6.50)[/b] Racing well this prep, and has been well backed this week. Heavy track form is good. Would much prefer him at Flemington though. Happy to take him on. at Caulfield [b]2. METAL BENDER ($6 FAV)[/b] Looks to be wanting the 2400m. Super win 1st-up when he flashed home, but since then has been grinding to the line. Wet track form is good enough. Definite chance, but I don't think I can back him at that price on a heavy track. [b]3. MR MEDICI ($19)[/b] Beat some very good horses in his last start over 2400m in Hong Kong, but an overall record of 5 wins from 33 starts means he can go around without mine. Bookmakers taking no risks [b]4. TOKAI TRICK ($67)[/b] Not raced since May 2, where he was beaten 12L in the Tenno Sho over 3200m. Cannot. [b]5. BUCCELLATI ($101)[/b] Making up the numbers [b]6. HARRIS TWEED ($31)[/b] Liked his win last start, although it was against the B & C-grade stayers. The heavy track brings him right into it though. Could do worse than have an each way ticket on him. [b]7. MANIGHAR ($13)[/b] Trainer knows what type of horse to bring out here for the Spring features. Great distance stats, and good record on giving tracks in the UK, which tend to be softer than the tracks here. Would've preferred him to have a start or 2 out here, but not bagging. [b]8. MASTER O'REILLY ($101)[/b] If he wins I'll give up the punt. If you want to back him, I'll give you better than the $101 if you back him with me. [b]9. MONACO CONSUL ($28)[/b] The wet ground should suit him (won the 2009 Spring Champion on a bog track), but he's not going well enough this prep. [b]10. TRIPLE HONOUR ($31)[/b] Respectable stats on wet tracks, but a huge distance doubt for mine. $31 is unders. [b]11. ZAVITE ($101)[/b] Put in a couple of good runs early this prep, but last start was a shocker. Doesn't handle wet tracks. No. [b]12. ALCOPOP ($8)[/b] Good run last start, which saw him shorten into equal favourite before the barrier draw. Has since drawn out in the car park, and has drifted as a result. As mentioned earlier in this thread, I'm potting him, primarily on the trainer. Would've been a winning chance in last years Melbourne Cup if the trainer hadn't sent him into the race with a month between runs. I can't have him. [b]13. HERCULIAN PRINCE ($7.50)[/b] Apart from the race where he choked down, he's been going very well this prep. This field is stronger than the field he beat in the Metrop though. I think he's a winning chance, but I can't help feel his odds are a tad short. If he gets out to $9 he's backable IMO. [b]14. ZABRASIVE ($41)[/b] Hasn't come up this preparation to my eye. Unlikely. [b]15. DESCARADO ($31)[/b] Put in a shocker last start. Would've conceded him some chance if not for that. He's the likely leader but I can't see him holding on. [b]16. JESSICABEEL ($51)[/b] Won the Sydney Cup in the Autumn, but has been racing poorly this prep. Would take a massive form reversal to win. Surely not. [b]17. FAINT PERFUME ($10)[/b] Reckon her form has been better than it looks on paper. Last run would've topped her off nicely for this. Can handle the wet tracks. Definite chance [b]18. DARIANA ($10)[/b] I really like her, although my confidence has wained since the rain has come. Unplaced from 2 runs on wet ground so far. Probably still a chance, although not as strong a push as I would've given had it been dry. [b]19E. MOURAYAN ($26)[/b] Should've finished a lot closer in the Metrop, was 3 wide for a long way. Probably won't get a start, but if he sneaks in he's a cheeky each way chance. [b]20E. RED RULER ($101)[/b] Wont run, can't win [b]21E. DRUNKEN SAILOR ($41)[/b] Hard to line up. Won't get a start. [b]22E. VALDEMORO ($67)[/b] Outclassed. [b][u]TIPS[/u][/b] Changed my tune a bit due to the forecast wet track ... 1. #17 Faint Perfume 2. #13 Herculian Prince 3. #18 Dariana Best Roughie - #6 Harris Tweed [/QUOTE]

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