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Message: [QUOTE="Beachy, post: 2341349, member: 1859"] [b]1. SHOCKING (Gate 24 - $8.50)[/b] Last years winner, and he's actually racing better than he was at this time last year. Put in a teriffic trial for this in the Caulfield Cup at a track he's not really suited at, but was disappointing to my eye yesterday in the Mackinnon. He loves Flemington, and you know he runs the trip, but this is a stronger field than last year. Can win, but I couldn't back him. [b]2. CAMPANOLOGIST (Gate 19 - $61)[/b] Comes here the higher rated of the 2 Godolphin runners, but the fact that their number 1 jockey Frankie Dettori has elected to ride their supposed 2nd stringer speaks volumes for me. Word is he's a nervy horse, so how he copes with 120,000 screaming fans on course will nearly be as big a test as the 3200m. I can't see him featuring. [b]3. SO YOU THINK (Gate 3 - $3.50)[/b] This guy is a freak. He's without doubt the best horse I've seen in the time I've been watching races. All his wins this campaign have been special, but he went to a new level yesterday in winning the Mackinnon. There will still be lingering doubts with some about his ability to see out the 3200m, but the way he settled yesterday has put that to bed for mine. Plus Bart thinks he'll do it on his ear - that's good enough for me. He just wins. [b]4. ZIPPING (Gate 16 - $31)[/b] The fine wine of Australian racing - he's getting better with age it seems. This year he's won an Australian Cup, a Turnbull Stks and been placed behing So You Think in a Cox Plate. And he's 9yo. Super stuff. I know he's run 4th in 2 Melbourne Cups, but I'm not convinced he gets the 2 mile trip. Place chance at absolute best. [b]5. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (Gate 9 - $71)[/b] 8yo English galloper who has been bought by Australian interests. He's a tough horse, who from reports races back in the field and grinds his opponents into the ground. If that's the case he'll struggle here, because the Australian way of racing won't suit a horse like that. To win a Melbourne Cup you need a turn of foot. In addition to this his best races have been run at Goodwood, which is a clockwise track - Flemington is anti-clockwise. It's safe to risk him winning. [b]6. MR MEDICI (Gate 5 - $51)[/b] This horse ran a fairly good 6th in the Caulfield Cup in his first run since May. That's a concern for me, as after a tough run like that off a decent spell, horses often can't back it up next start. He's also not been tested beyond the 2400m. Gets Beadman, but even that isn't likely to be enough. [b]7. SHOOT OUT (Gate 17 - $31)[/b] There can be no arguments about this horse's consistency. In 7 starts this preparation he's finished no worse than 4th, which is a tremendous credit to his trainer. His last 2 starts in the Cox Plate and the Mackinnon have suggested that he's now looking for this additional distance. Still has to rate as a slight doubt at the distance as he's untired at the trip and if the track stays very wet that would raise concerns too. You couldn't completely put the pen through him though simply because he's always around the mark. Good one for tri's & first4's. [b]8. AMERICAIN (Gate 12 - $12)[/b] Won 3 races over in France before making the trip out. One of those wins was a narrow win over Manighar in a Group 2 over 3000m. His win in the Geelong Cup with 58kg was very good, and that race has become a reliable reference for the Melbourne Cup in the last decade. You'd have to think he'd improve off that run. Decent chance. [b]9. TOKAI TRICK (Gate 4 - $101)[/b] 9yo Japanese runner who is 2nd up after an pretty ordinary Caulfield Cup run, but you'd think Flemington and the rise in distance will suit. We know the Japanese should be respected after Delta Blues and Pop Rock were 1/2 a couple of years back. The difference between Tokai Trick and those 2 gallopers was the other 2 put in great runs in the Caulfield Cup, plus they ran into a relatively weak field. This is one of the strongest Cups in recent memory, and with that in mind I'm tipping he'll struggle. [b]10. BUCCELLATI (Gate 21 - $331)[/b] Since coming to Australia, every run, with the possible exception of his run in the Turnbull, has been ordinary to say the least. If you draw him in the sweeps you'll be a real chance of a collect as he's a likely candidate for last place. [b]11. DESCARADO (Gate 1 - $12.50)[/b] Caulfield Cup winner and as we know, that is the best form guide for this race. Conditions on Tuesday are likely to be similar to those on Caulfield Cup day, so that will be to his advantage. So You Think took care of him pretty easily in the Mackinnon yesterday, but a wet track may well bring them a bit closer together. Definite each way chance. [b]12. HARRIS TWEED (Gate 13 - $26)[/b] Caulfield Cup runner-up, so alot of the comments on Descarado will apply to this guy too (ie. the wet track advantage etc). Ran 5th in the race last year, but is coming into this in better form this time around. He's a bit of a non-winner, and one of my personal rules is not backing horses who failed in their first tilt at winning this race becuase very few horses do it. Multiples chance at best. [b]13. MANIGHAR (Gate 20 - $19)[/b] Another who put in a good performance in the Caulfield Cup. Had good form in France last year, but has been below that this year before showing signs of improvement in his last 2 runs. Trainer knows what horse it takes, and the track condition is likely to suit. Another with a hope. [b]14. MASTER O'REILLY (Gate 18 - $276)[/b] No horse in the history of the Melbourne Cup has won from gate 18, and that's not likely to change on Tuesday as he hasn't won since 2007. Has run 4th in the last 2 Melbourne Cups, but his form this time in is terrible. This will be his last start and it won't be a fairytale finish. Cannot possibly win. [b]15. MONACO CONSUL (Gate 14 - $24)[/b] Kiwi galloper who has a great record at 2400m, however he can throw in a shocker every now and then. To my eye, his was the best run of the beaten brigade in the Caulfield Cup. Shocking caught everyones eye, but this horse came from behind him at the 1000m and beat him home. He looks a Melbourne Cup type, and at the odds I think he's a decent chance. [b]16. PROFOUND BEAUTY (Gate 22 - $29)[/b] After her 5th behind Viewed in 2008, I was keen to back her if she ever returned as she seemed a bit immature in that race. She's another who's returning in better form than her previous attempt. She seems pretty bulletproof, and the forecast conditions should suit. I've seen far worse $30 chances in previous Melbourne Cups ... [b]17. ZAVITE (Gate 7 - $151)[/b] His form this preparation actually hasn't been all that bad. He's another returning for another shot with better lead up form than he had for his previous attempt. Caulfield Cup run was ok, and one of the most in form jockeys anywhere, Michael Walker, gets aboard. Happy to risk him winning, but I'll throw him in a couple of tri's and first4's as a blowout chance. [b]18. BAUER (Gate 2 - $76)[/b] Runner up in 2008, when beaten an absolute whisker by Viewed. He's had a few issues since arriving, but was passed fit by vets on Friday. He's only had 2 runs since that 2nd placing 2 years ago and that's a major concern. I also think he'll need to dry to show his best. Unlikely. [b]19. HOLBERG (Gate 10 - $19)[/b] As mentioned earlier, he's the supposed 2nd stringer from Godolphin, but I reckon he's the better chance. It appears that Frankie Dettori agrees, as he's elected to ride this one over Campanologist. He's lightly raced, with only 12 starts for 6 wins. He's looking for this trip, and I have him as the best of the internationals. Each way all day [b]20. PRECEDENCE (Gate 15 - $21)[/b] A horse who has significantly improved this preparation, as shown by the face he's been penalised 3kg from his original handicap. However nagging in the back of the mind is a terrible run in the Sydney Cup over this trip, when many thought he was a real chance. He's in form, but on the evidence to date you'd risk him running out the 3200m. Under the odds. [b]21. RED RULER (Gate 8 - $331[/b] Another Kiwi, who has never won a race on this side of the Tasman. Hasn't run any further than 2400m, and he favours dry tracks. Plenty against. No. [b]22. LINTON (Gate 23 - $22)[/b] Lightly raced grey on an upward spiral. Had a light prep in the Autumn before being set for this. His 2 runs at 2400m+ have seen him pick up a win and a 2nd placing. Meets Maluckyday better at the weights after their meeting in the Lexus yesterday, but I was a bit disappointed with his run. I think he'll be a better horse in 12 months or so, but he's a rough chance this year. [b]23. ONCE WERE WILD (Gate 11 - $38)[/b] Won the AJC Oaks in the Autumn, where her preparation was faultless. The same can't be said for her prep this time in though, which has seen a mix of good and poor runs. Very unlucky in the Geelong Cup, before a very tough run yesterday. The back up has to be a concern. Willing to take her on. [b]24. MALUCKYDAY (Gate 6 - $10)[/b] Emerging stayer by Zabeel who has done everything asked of him this preparation. Never finished out of the placings. After his win on Saturday Jim Cassidy rated him the best stayer he's ridden since Kiwi, which is quite a statement considering he rode Might And Power. This is another massive step up but he'll be hitting the line at the death. Another with an each way chance. [b][u]TIPS[/u][/b] 1st - #3 So You Think 2nd - #19 Holberg 3rd - #15 Monaco Consul Roughie - #16 Profound Beauty Good luck with whatever you back icon_thumbs_u [/QUOTE]

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