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Message: [QUOTE="Jeba, post: 2341386, member: 1827"] OK, this preview may not seem helpful, because there are plenty of horses in this race that I think are a chance to win. Might pay just to go So You Think for the win, but here's the two bobs worth anyway. [b][u]1. SHOCKING[/u][/b] Faultless prep but IMO he just has too much against him this year. Barrier no concern on a wet track but I think a heavy track, with 57kg he is a big risk. That and I wasn't too taken by his run the the McKinnon. On a dry track I'd rate him a chance but there's just a few too many crosses for him this year I think. [b][u]2. CAMPANOLOGIST[/u][/b] Happy to take this on. Have heard Saeed on the radio in the last few weeks saying they were really disappointed that Holberg would most likely not get a run as he considered him their best chance. I'll take that advice. [b][u]3. SO YOU THINK[/u][/b] Been trying to find a chink in the armour all spring, but he just keeps winning. He is a champion, and to be in the stands at Flemington on Saturday to witness his win in the MacKinnon was one of the most amazing moments I have ever experienced in my years of watching live sport. Would be even better to see him win the 150th Melbourne Cup. Obvious huge chance. [b][u]4. ZIPPING[/u][/b] In better form than ever, and he has run 4th in this race twice before. Nick Williams seemed very very upbeat about his chances at the barrier draw. He is a grand old galloper and Flemington is his favourite track, and I think he is a chance at odds. His run in the Cox Plate was very good, and he'll be given more time to wind up here. [b][u]5. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE[/u][/b] Geez I hate these, grinding English stayers with no turn of foot, who try to win our Cup. Keep him over there where he is a chance of winning a race. No hope. [b][u]6. MR MEDICI[/u][/b][u][/u] Pretty good in the Caulfield Cup but it was a tough run on a heavy track, and second up over 3200m will find it hard to back that up. Wouldn't have him in the first dozen. [b][u]7. SHOOT OUT[/u][/b][u][/u] If you're looking for Melbourne Cup trials, look no further than this bloke's last 3 runs. Their original target here was the Cox Plate but he has just developed into a horse that looks a real stayer. And to top it off, his run in the MacKinnon would've been exactly what they are looking for. Not sure if he can challenge So You Think or not but he will be running home giving himself every chance, and doing it for his good mate Stathi, RIP. [b][u]8. AMERICAIN[/u][/b] Impressive winner in the Geelong Cup which in recent times has proven a good guide to this race. Loving how he had a nice lead-up run here and you can guarantee he will run out the trip. Will be right up there for sure. [b][u]9. TOKAI TRICK[/u][/b] Never underestimate the Japanese after 2006 but I don't think this bloke is from the top line over there. Happy to leave him out. [b][u]10. BUCCELLATI[/u][/b] I reckon I'd have more of a chance if I was running. [b][u]11. DESCARADO[/u][/b][u][/b] On form he is the best wet tracker in the race. Great win in the Caulfield Cup and a good run on Saturday, should race on the speed and be right up there. Definate hope. [b][u]12. HARRIS TWEED[/u][/b][u][/u] He is a better horse than this time last year and ran a great race here last year, but I am concerned about the way he just hasn't finished off in his last couple of race. He loomed as if unbeatable in the Caulfield Cup but couldn't deliver the knockout blow, and the start before that at Flemington was similar, yet was able to hang on and win, against a poor field. To my eye, he just doesn't know what to do when he has his chance. I don't think he can win. [b][u]13. MANIGHAR[/u][/b][u][/u] Has the form behind Americain and Holberg overseas, so on that basis I am happy to say that those two can beat him again. Always respect Cumani-Oliver, but IMO the form has him behind a few of them. [b][u]14. MASTER O'REILLY[/u][/b][u][/u] No, how is he even in the race? [b][u]15. MONACO CONSUL[/u][/b] A must for the exotics this boy. His run in the Caulfield Cup was enormous, loves the wet going and will run out the trip. To my eye he is the best roughie in the race. [b][u]16. PROFOUND BEAUTY[/u][/b] Not sure she can handle the heavy track, so am happy to leave her out. [b][u]17. ZAVITE[/u][/b] Who knows with this bloke? The only one who can predict what type of race he will run is Zavite himself. Very up and down, but on the basis of 4 starts on a heavy for 4 unplaced runs I'll leave him out. [b][u]18. BAUER[/u][/b] Has only had 2 runs since his Melbourne Cup second to Viewed in 2008, so I would think he'd be lacking a bit of fitness. Both runs have been pretty ordinary too. Doubt he can reproduce 2008. [b][u]19. HOLBERG[/u][/b][u][/u] You have to respect Godolphin, and they have said he is their best hope, so with not much else to look at, I'd give him a chance on the basis of that. [b][u]20. PRECEDENCE[/u][/b][u][/u] Loving his form this time in. His win in the Moonee Valley Cup was better than it looked, and he is a much better horse this time in than what he was in the Autumn this year. Think with the light weight he is a hope. [b][u]21. RED RULER[/u][/b][u][/u] After Tuesday, I call on Border Security to do their bit to keep this donkey out of Australia. [b][u]22. LINTON[/u][/b] Thought his run the other day was better than it looked, as he copped a nasty bump coming out of the straight the first time and had to do some extra work to settle into his position. Meanwhile Maluckyday was just smoking his pipe. I give him a hope, mind you there is a massive collect for me if he wins so I might be a tad biased [icon_wink [b][u]23. ONCE WERE WILD[/u][/b][u][/u] Has gradually improved during the Spring but I don't think she is tough enough to beat these good stayers on a heavy track. [b][u]24. MALUCKYDAY[/u][/b] I am going to take him on. He had the easiest of runs in the Lexus and he won't get it here. Keep in mind the track was still Good the other day as well so he is untested on heavy ground. Not for me. [b][u]THE TIP[/u][/b] This is either the hardest Melbourne Cup of all time, or the easiest. It would be boring to tip So You Think, so I am going to pick you the trifecta with him not included, in the hope that in that regard he may not run out the trip. So I am going: 1. Shoot Out 2. Monaco Consul 3. Americain Best Roughie (apart from Monaco Consul) - Zipping[/u] [/QUOTE]

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