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2019 Season Predictions
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[QUOTE="Big Pete, post: 3004914, member: 1899"] This is how my ladder would look like based purely on teams and what the player's have accomplished in recent times. 1. Sydney Roosters 2. South Sydney Rabbitohs 3. Melbourne Storm 4. St. George Illawarra Dragons 5. Penrith Panthers 6. Brisbane Broncos 7. Warriors 8. Cronulla Sharks ------------------------------------ 9. Newcastle Knights 10. Canberra Raiders 11. Gold Coast Titans 12. North Queensland Cowboys 13. Manly Sea Eagles 14. Wests Tigers 15. Parramatta Eels 16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs A couple of caveats here. I didn't consider players who are currently under investigation, so players like Jack de Belin and Dylan Walker were kept out of the ratings. I also didn't consider players who are facing long lay-offs on the sideline like Wade Graham and Jordan Rapana. The reason being for the latter, is that they're set to miss a significant chunk of time and there's no guarantee they will hit the ground running. If we were to factor in those players, this is what the rankings would look like: 1. Sydney Roosters 2. St. George Illawarra Dragons 3. South Sydney Rabbitohs 4. Melbourne Storm 5. Cronulla Sharks 6. Penrith Panthers 7. Canberra Raiders 8. Brisbane Broncos ------------------------------------ 9. Warriors 10. Newcastle Knights 11. Manly Sea Eagles 12. Gold Coast Titans 13. North Queensland Cowboys 14. Wests Tigers 15. Parramatta Eels 16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs HOWEVER, I believe there's something to be said about having a quality coach on board. So when you factor in their influence, my very basic estimation of 2019 is: [B]1. Sydney Roosters 2. Melbourne Storm 3. South Sydney Rabbitohs 4. Penrith Panthers 5. Brisbane Broncos 6. St. George Illawarra Dragons 7. North Queensland Cowboys 8. Warriors ------------------------------------------ 9. Newcastle Knights 10. Canberra Raiders 11. Manly Sea Eagles 12. Cronulla Sharks 13. Gold Coast Titans 14. Wests Tigers 15. Parramatta Eels 16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs[/B] Geez I'm getting good at writing up these ladders. Now I think you can see the issue with this approach. Historically there's always been 2 teams who have dropped out of last year's Top 8, if not 3. While this doesn't take into account injuries, it also doesn't factor in form fluctuation and other factors that affect the ladder. Still, it takes some of the guess-work, vibes, intuitions etc. out of it. My methodology went like so. I rated teams out of ten on Spine (1, 6, 7, 9), Backs (2-5), Forwards (8, 10, 11, 12, 13) where I'd assign each player a score and then calculate the average. I also rated teams based on their bench. I assigned each player a score out of ten, calculated the average then divided it by 2. My belief is that the bench isn't as valuable as other components of the team. As for coaches, I assigned them a score out of ten and also divided it by half because a good team can mask an inept coach. A score of 10 indicated the best player in that position or equal to, a score of 5 meant you were either a rookie or among the worst players. I'd be curious to see others carry out the exercise and see what results they get. [/QUOTE]
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