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Message: [QUOTE="McHunt, post: 3065146, member: 9853"] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][B]Round 22'[/B]s defeat of the [B]PANTHERS[/B] proved we are finals contenders, albeit challenging the lowest rungs of the Eight. We improved our position on the ladder and lost the Warriors along the way. On the downside, we also lost two matchwinners in [B]TPJ [/B]and [B]Turps[/B]. [B]Round 23 [/B]is the [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)][B]GRUDGE ROUND[/B][/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)] where COTY 2018 gets to stick to the Super Coach. [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)].................................................................................................................................[/COLOR] [B]This isn't a form guide[/B]: it's only about the maths of making the playoffs. These are our goals, in order of priority, in solidarity with Coach of the Year 2018: 1. Make the playoffs. (Very possible) 2. Improve on 2018 (Mathematically possible by some metrics, eg. Ladder Position and progress through finals.) 3. Finish higher than Super Coach Wayne. (Mathematically possible)[/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)].................................................................................................................................[/COLOR][/COLOR] [B][COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)]WEEKEND GUIDE: ROUND 23[/COLOR][/B] [COLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)][I]The teams realistically threatening our place in the 8 are the[B] SHARKS, PANTHERS, KNIGHTS & TIGERS.[/B] Losing to [B]SOUTHS[/B] will drop us to [B]8th [/B]if either [B]PENRITH[/B] or [B]CRONULLA[/B] win or [B]9th[/B] if [B]BOTH[/B] win. [COLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)][I]See below for a breakdown. [/I][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)][I][COLOR=rgb(255, 255, 255)]NB: Favourable outcome in[B] BOLD[/B] [/COLOR][/I][/COLOR][/I] [B][U]THURSDAY[/U][/B] EELS (H) v[B] BULLDOGS:[/B] [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][B]MAYBE RELEVANT.[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I]If Parramatta lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish [B]5th [/B]or [B]6th[/B], depending also on Manly and Souths[B]. [/B] Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so[B] 4TH [/B]isn't up for grabs.[/I] [B][U]FRIDAY[/U] COWBOYS (H)[/B] v PANTHERS [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)][B]CRITICAL.[/B][/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)] [I]Penrith will leapfrog us if they win. We will have to beat Souths to hold 7th position.[/I] [B]BRONCOS (H)[/B] v RABBITOHS [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)][B]CRITICAL.[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I]Toughest opponent left. Not a must win, but a loss will leave us at the mercy of other results. Plus there's the [B]grudge [/B]to settle. Also [/I][COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I]if Souths lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish [B]5th[/B] or [B]6th[/B], depending also on Parramatta and Manly. Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so [B]4th[/B] isn't up for grabs.[/I][/COLOR][/COLOR] [B][U]SATURDAY[/U][/B] SHARKS[/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)](H) v [B]WARRIORS[/B]: [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)][B]CRITICAL. [/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I]Cronulla [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)]will leapfrog us if they win, as well as Penrith if they also win. We will have to beat Souths to hold 7th position.[/COLOR] If both Cronulla and Penrith win, we will fall to 9th if we lose to Souths.[/I] [B]TIGERS[/B] (H) v [B]KNIGHTS[/B]: [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)][B]CRITICAL. [/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I]Wests and Newcastle are both still in the race. Tough to pick, this one. Either way is both good and bad for us. Would be nice to see the back of the Knights.[/I] [B]DRAGONS[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)](H) v ROOSTERS: [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(26, 188, 156)][B]IRRELEVANT[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][B][U]SUNDAY[/U][/B] STORM (H) v [B]TITANS[/B]: [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(0, 168, 133)][B]IRRELEVANT[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][B]RAIDERS [/B](H) v SEA EAGLES: [/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(44, 130, 201)][B]MAYBE RELEVANT[/B][/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)]. [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I]If Manly lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish [B]5th [/B]or [B]6th[/B], depending also on Parramatta and Souths[B]. [/B] Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so[B] 4th [/B]isn't up for grabs.[/I][/COLOR] .................................................................................................................................[/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][B]TABLE AFTER ROUND 22 AND REMAINING GAMES[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I]Points, Diff, next games. Teams in bold are currently higher on the table. (autopredicted points)[/I] BRONCOS: 23, -40. [B]Souths[/B] (H), [B]Eels [/B](H), Bulldogs (A) ([B]25[/B]) [B]IMMINENT THREAT[/B] SHARKS: 22, 8. Warriors (H), [B]Raiders[/B] (H), Tigers (A) ([B]26[/B]) PANTHERS: 22, -75. Cowboys (A), [B]Roosters [/B](A), Knights (H) ([B]26[/B]) [B]LOOMING THREAT[/B] KNIGHTS: 20, 15. Tigers (A), Titans (H), [B]Panthers [/B](A) ([B]24[/B]) TIGERS: 20, -64. [B]Knights [/B](H), Dragons (A), [B]Sharks [/B](H) ([B]22[/B]) [B]TERMINATED[/B] WARRIORS: 19, 98. [B]Sharks[/B] (A), [B]Rabbitohs[/B] (H), [B]Raiders [/B](A) ([B]19[/B]) .................................................................................................................................[/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)][B]AUTOPREDICTED PREMIERSHIP LADDER (END ROUND 22)[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][I](based on team currently higher on ladder winning)[/I] [B]7. SHARKS 8. PANTHERS 9. [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(184, 49, 47)][B]BRONCOS[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(204, 204, 204)][B]10. KNIGHTS 11. TIGERS[/B] We need to beat the Eels/Rabbitohs or for an upset against the Panthers or Sharks. Best chance of the latter is in the final round. .................................................................................................................................[/COLOR] [/QUOTE]

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