The last match
- Thread starter vertigo
- Start date
Major JW Hochstetter
NRL Player
- Mar 4, 2008
- 1,480
- 28
Re: The last 8 matches
What looks like the likely cutoff for the 8 this year? 28 points on F/A and maybe 30 to be secure perhaps? That's 4-5 wins out of 8. I'd be extremely disappointed if we couldn't secure a spot from here. We should definitely have our sights set on the Top 4. And if we build any kind of momentum into the finals, that's where we'll probably finish anyway.
What looks like the likely cutoff for the 8 this year? 28 points on F/A and maybe 30 to be secure perhaps? That's 4-5 wins out of 8. I'd be extremely disappointed if we couldn't secure a spot from here. We should definitely have our sights set on the Top 4. And if we build any kind of momentum into the finals, that's where we'll probably finish anyway.
Bucking Beads
International Captain
- Mar 5, 2008
- 24,604
- 7,906
Re: The last 8 matches
If we are at our best we should win all 8 remaining games on our way to a 7th Premiership. Warriors game will be tough and the cowboys could give us a scare if they find some form. I just hope we win all our home games.
If we are at our best we should win all 8 remaining games on our way to a 7th Premiership. Warriors game will be tough and the cowboys could give us a scare if they find some form. I just hope we win all our home games.
- Feb 27, 2010
- 29,871
- 12,197
Re: The last 8 matches
With the amount of "teeangers" we have running around, I'm a bit weary of over confidence creeping into our ranks, especially if we win 8 on the trot.
Hopefully the likes of Henjak, Lockyer and other senior players can keep it under control.
In all honesty, I see the Cows and Knights (traditionally) as the danger games in our run towards a final 4 spot, because I'm sure everyone will fire up against the Titans and Dragons.
If we're on song and keep our defensive record of late, I can't see anyone capable of putting more points on us than we put on them.
With the amount of "teeangers" we have running around, I'm a bit weary of over confidence creeping into our ranks, especially if we win 8 on the trot.
Hopefully the likes of Henjak, Lockyer and other senior players can keep it under control.
In all honesty, I see the Cows and Knights (traditionally) as the danger games in our run towards a final 4 spot, because I'm sure everyone will fire up against the Titans and Dragons.
If we're on song and keep our defensive record of late, I can't see anyone capable of putting more points on us than we put on them.
Re: The last 8 matches
Can't wait for the dragons match - it will be a really good barometer for our premiership chances.
Actually I was thinking a broncos/dragons gf would be good - The team that has never lost a grand final versus the coach that has never lost a grand final. Classic.
Can't wait for the dragons match - it will be a really good barometer for our premiership chances.
Actually I was thinking a broncos/dragons gf would be good - The team that has never lost a grand final versus the coach that has never lost a grand final. Classic.
vertigo
State of Origin Rep
- Mar 2, 2010
- 6,332
- 4,455
- Thread starter
- #13
Re: The last 8 matches
Haha yeah, not trying to be negative, I just think you don't want to burn out winning a heap in a row before finals à la Dragons last year. Ideally you want to be hitting form and winning 2-3 games into the finals to go all the way.
simmo77 said:
Haha yeah, not trying to be negative, I just think you don't want to burn out winning a heap in a row before finals à la Dragons last year. Ideally you want to be hitting form and winning 2-3 games into the finals to go all the way.
- Apr 26, 2008
- 34,578
- 35,550
Re: The last 8 matches
If Hodges is back for the Dragons game I reckon we can win that and if attitude is right we will have no problem winning the other 7.
We CAN win all 8 games but we won't. We will lose one or two of them even when we shouldn't but we will comfortably make the top 8.
With Melbourne out of the comp who would actually be in third place now if they could accrue points, the competition is essentially a top 5 and a top 9, not a top 4/8.
Cut off in previous years has been anywhere from 24-30 points, however with Melbourne beating other teams while not accruing points and St George run away minor premiers 2-10 is really open up until the last 2-3 games.
26 should easily get us in the 8, 30-32 should get us top 4 however with the competition as close as it is it will almost certainly come down to point differential, that is what will separate the top 4 contenders and more so the fringe top 8 teams all on similar points.
We are currently equal 4th on differential the more we push that up the more likely it is we finish in a higher spot come round 26 when no doubts some teams will be in a grid lock for points with only P/D separating.
If Hodges is back for the Dragons game I reckon we can win that and if attitude is right we will have no problem winning the other 7.
We CAN win all 8 games but we won't. We will lose one or two of them even when we shouldn't but we will comfortably make the top 8.
With Melbourne out of the comp who would actually be in third place now if they could accrue points, the competition is essentially a top 5 and a top 9, not a top 4/8.
Cut off in previous years has been anywhere from 24-30 points, however with Melbourne beating other teams while not accruing points and St George run away minor premiers 2-10 is really open up until the last 2-3 games.
26 should easily get us in the 8, 30-32 should get us top 4 however with the competition as close as it is it will almost certainly come down to point differential, that is what will separate the top 4 contenders and more so the fringe top 8 teams all on similar points.
We are currently equal 4th on differential the more we push that up the more likely it is we finish in a higher spot come round 26 when no doubts some teams will be in a grid lock for points with only P/D separating.
- Apr 26, 2008
- 34,578
- 35,550
Re: The last 8 matches
With Melbourne scenario it's actually a top 9 now because if they were accruing points the team at 8 would actually be at 9(because technically Melbourne are 3rd now).
So 28 is a virtually a certainty to make the finals as it is basically a "top 9". Since 06 9th spot has never exceed 28 points and in 07 28 points was 5th on ladder.
With teams 4-9 all technically being pushed up a spot to 3-8(so long as Melbourne keep winning most of their games this will remain true) this is an idea of how it might go.
This is how many points would have made top 4/8 in previous years with the whole Melbourne scenario above.
2006 - 9th position = 26 | top 4 = 32 (teams 3-6 only p/d separating)
2007 - 9th position = 24 | top 4 = 28(29 points actual top 4)
2008 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 33(34 "")
2009 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 32(33 "")
2010 - 9th position = ??? | top 4 = ???
32 is a safe bet for top 4 so to make top 4 we would need to win 6 out of our last 8 games and the P/D will take care of itself.
Thought some people would like to see this stuff, for the statistic/history lovers :P
With Melbourne scenario it's actually a top 9 now because if they were accruing points the team at 8 would actually be at 9(because technically Melbourne are 3rd now).
So 28 is a virtually a certainty to make the finals as it is basically a "top 9". Since 06 9th spot has never exceed 28 points and in 07 28 points was 5th on ladder.
With teams 4-9 all technically being pushed up a spot to 3-8(so long as Melbourne keep winning most of their games this will remain true) this is an idea of how it might go.
This is how many points would have made top 4/8 in previous years with the whole Melbourne scenario above.
2006 - 9th position = 26 | top 4 = 32 (teams 3-6 only p/d separating)
2007 - 9th position = 24 | top 4 = 28(29 points actual top 4)
2008 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 33(34 "")
2009 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 32(33 "")
2010 - 9th position = ??? | top 4 = ???
32 is a safe bet for top 4 so to make top 4 we would need to win 6 out of our last 8 games and the P/D will take care of itself.
Thought some people would like to see this stuff, for the statistic/history lovers :P
rnabokov
State of Origin Captain
- Mar 5, 2008
- 9,586
- 8,889
Re: The last 8 matches
In my view the Dragoons are quite beatable because, like last year, they are largely predictable, only they're executing so much better this year. The Broncos on the other hand having enough potential variety in attack and game-breakers that there is no reason - luck and injuries aside, why we can't at least get to the GF.
The only sides I see as a definite worry are the Warriors, purely because it's an away game, and, the Broncos, if they lose consistency.
In my view the Dragoons are quite beatable because, like last year, they are largely predictable, only they're executing so much better this year. The Broncos on the other hand having enough potential variety in attack and game-breakers that there is no reason - luck and injuries aside, why we can't at least get to the GF.
The only sides I see as a definite worry are the Warriors, purely because it's an away game, and, the Broncos, if they lose consistency.
